- The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index — a measure of the distinction between the worth of Bitcoin on Coinbase versus different exchanges — fell to its lowest degree since Q1 of 2025 on November 21.
- The autumn within the index suggests US shopping for exercise is decrease, promoting stress is excessive and institutional traders’ curiosity in Bitcoin has dropped.
- Bitcoin’s worth has additionally seen a considerable drop over the previous 6 weeks, nonetheless in current days the OG crypto has seen some assist creating across the low US$80k vary as consumers return and ETF inflows enhance.
The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index — a measure of the divergence of Bitcoin’s worth on Coinbase versus its common worth on quite a few different exchanges — fell to -0.1623% on November 21, its lowest degree since Q1 of 2025.
This unfavorable quantity means Bitcoin is definitely cheaper on Coinbase than it’s on many different exchanges. That alerts diminished shopping for exercise within the US, elevated promoting stress, and a weakening of institutional demand.
The index had been firmly in constructive territory till simply after the large liquidation occasion that hit crypto markets on October 10. On October 11, the index hit a excessive of 0.1787%, however since then it’s been steadily falling and has been in unfavorable territory since October 31.
The autumn within the index coincides with Bitcoin’s personal precipitous worth drop since early October. On October 6, Bitcoin sat at its all-time excessive worth of US$126,199 ($AU195k) — simply days later, on October 10, the biggest liquidation occasion in crypto historical past struck. Ever since, it’s been crimson candles all the best way down.
Bitcoin made a brand new low of US$82,500 (AU$127k) on November 22. Nonetheless, previously few days, it’s seen a bounce and on the time of writing sits at round US$87,500 (AU$135k) according to CoinGecko.
Associated: Bitcoin’s ‘Max Pain’ Zone Set Between $73K and $84K, Says Bitwise Analyst
ETFs See Inflows as Bitcoin Bounces
Coinciding with Bitcoin’s current bounce, spot Bitcoin ETFs have additionally began to see vital inflows — November 21 saw internet inflows of US$238.4 million (AU$368.9m), the perfect single day since November 11.
Along with the robust inflows, complete quantity for the Bitcoin spot ETFs on November 21 was additionally wholesome at US$11.5 billion (AU$17.7b) according to Bloomberg’s Senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas. US$8 billion (AU$12.3b) of quantity was accounted for by BlackRock’s IBIT fund.
Based mostly on the excessive buying and selling quantity, some now imagine November 21 could have marked a capitulation occasion for Bitcoin and we could now begin to see some strong assist at across the US$80k degree (AU$123.8k).
Associated: BlackRock Expands Bitcoin Bet with Australia’s First iShares Bitcoin ETF
Supporting this capitulation idea is Glassnode data from Friday exhibiting over US$4 billion (AU$6.1b) in realised Bitcoin losses — the best degree for the reason that Could 2023 collapse of Silicon Valley Financial institution. It could simply be that everybody who’s going to promote has now offered and we would see some stability return to the crypto market.
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