- Grayscale is optimistic that Bitcoin (BTC) may hit new all-time highs in 2026, regardless of the present downturn that has erased a lot of the 12 months’s positive factors.
- The agency challenges the standard “four-year cycle” thesis linked to halving occasions, arguing that deep pullbacks (like the present roughly 27% drop from the ATH) are frequent in bull markets.
- BitMine’s Tom Lee helps this view, anticipating BTC to set a brand new all-time excessive by January 2026, as enhancing fundamentals make the danger/reward “engaging.”
Bitcoin and the remainder of the crypto market have been underneath strain for the final couple of months, primarily erasing all of this 12 months’s positive factors with a 4.3% lower yearly for BTC, and the market’s capitalisation barely holding on to the US$3.1 trillion mark (AU$4.72 trillion).
However Grayscale stays optimistic, because the agency’s analysis unit says BTC may attain new all-time highs in 2026, arguing the market just isn’t coming into a protracted downturn regardless of a pointy pullback since October.
In a report printed Monday, the agency challenged the “four-year cycle” thesis, which hyperlinks main Bitcoin peaks and crashes to its halving schedule. Grayscale analysts mentioned that whereas the outlook stays unsure, they anticipate BTC to “probably make new highs subsequent 12 months” somewhat than repeat previous boom-bust patterns.
Learn extra: China’s Central Bank Reasserts Crypto Ban, Warns Stablecoins Pose Major Financial Risks
Volatility Forward
Bitcoin’s value went from US$90K (AU$136.8K) to beneath US$85K (AU$129.2K) at the very least thrice within the final 40 days or so, a transparent signal of volatility that even pushed investor sentiment to ranges even decrease than the post-FTX period. BTC is now 27% down from its ATH of US$126K (AU$191K) on Oct. 6 of this 12 months.
However Grayscale mentioned drawdowns of 25% or extra are frequent throughout bull markets and don’t robotically sign a structural high.
This can be a view that Tom Lee, CEO of BitMine, shares. Writing on X, he mentioned crypto costs have dropped “relentlessly” whilst fundamentals reminiscent of pockets development, on-chain exercise, charges and tokenisation enhance, making the danger/reward “engaging” for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Lee additionally informed CNBC he expects Bitcoin to set a brand new all-time excessive by January 2026, now backing down from his stance that BTC may attain over US$250K (AU$382K) by year-end.
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