• A Polymarket dealer profited over $400,000 on a Venezuela-related wager that surged hours earlier than Donald Trump introduced the seize of Nicolás Maduro.
  • The suspicious timing of the commerce sparked considerations about insider buying and selling, main Consultant Ritchie Torres to suggest a invoice banning authorities officers from utilizing nonpublic data on prediction markets.
  • The proposed laws goals to use STOCK Act ethics requirements to each centralised and decentralised platforms to stop federal workers from taking advantage of authorities coverage or international actions.

A Polymarket wager that turned about US$32.5K (AU$49K) into greater than US$400K (AU$612K) inside a day is driving a brand new push in Congress to limit buying and selling by authorities insiders on prediction platforms.

The commerce drew consideration after President Donald Trump stated on Saturday that US forces had taken Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro into custody following in a single day army strikes on Caracas. 

Axios reported {that a} Polymarket account opened in late December positioned solely 4 bets, all tied to US intervention in Venezuela, and acquired contracts predicting Maduro could be “out” by Jan. 31 at round US$0.07 every when the implied odds have been within the low single digits. 

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Maduro’s Seize Was The Set off

After Maduro’s seize was confirmed Saturday morning, the contracts settled close to US$1, producing the outsized achieve. The Wall Road Journal reported the market started shifting sharply greater shortly earlier than 10 p.m. ET on Friday, hours earlier than Trump’s announcement.

Rep. Ritchie Torres is now expected to introduce the Public Integrity in Monetary Prediction Markets Act of 2026, in response to Punchbowl Information founder Jake Sherman. 

The proposal would bar federal elected officers, political appointees, and govt department workers from buying and selling prediction-market contracts tied to political outcomes or authorities coverage after they have, or might fairly receive by means of their roles, materials nonpublic data.

A spokesperson for Torres stated the invoice had been in growth, however the Venezuela wager highlighted the necessity to transfer shortly. The measure at present has no co-sponsors, the spokesperson stated, and Torres plans to construct assist within the weeks forward.

Torres’ invoice would search to use ethics requirements just like the STOCK Act to prediction markets, together with decentralised venues, by prohibiting authorities personnel from utilizing nonpublic information about enforcement actions, courtroom rulings, or international coverage choices for private achieve.

Kalshi, one other prediction-market platform, pointed to its personal guidelines in response to the dialogue, saying its rulebook already prohibits buying and selling on materials nonpublic data by insiders or decision-makers.

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