• On-chain analyst Willy Woo warned that Bitcoin’s latest restoration towards US$74K is a “bull lure” prone to final till the top of April earlier than the broader downtrend resumes.
  • Bitcoin has declined 46.82% from its October 2025 all-time excessive of US$126K, with Woo putting the asset “solidly in the midst of its bear market” based mostly on liquidity flows quite than value motion alone.
  • Supporting knowledge from Santiment and CryptoQuant aligns with Woo’s bearish outlook, with whale promoting persevering with at the same time as retail traders purchase beneath US$70K.

Bitcoin’s fallout from a report US$126K (AU$180K) in October 2025 certainly made lots of people nervous, ready for some form of rebound, regardless of how small. 

That mentioned, Bitcoin’s transfer again towards US$74,000 (AU$105K) might not mark an actual restoration, as on-chain analyst Willy Woo warns it’s only a traditional bull lure.

Woo’s view is that the market is now not within the early stage of the downturn. He has described Bitcoin as being within the center a part of a bear cycle, the place non permanent rallies can seem convincing however fail as a result of longer-term capital has not returned. He mentioned the present bounce may proceed via the top of April, however not essentially change the broader path.

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A Three-Section Bear Market

Woo’s analytical framework breaks Bitcoin bear markets into three phases. 

In February, he mentioned the market was transferring from the primary section into the second, a stage the place weakening liquidity spreads throughout broader danger belongings.

The ultimate section, in his framework, happens solely after a deeper capitulation adopted by renewed long-term capital coming into the market.

Based mostly on this mannequin, Woo initiatives a possible cycle backside close to US$45K (AU$64K) in late 2026, with a brand new bull market presumably rising in 2027.

Sentiment Knowledge Helps the Bearish Case

Knowledge from Santiment shows giant holders persevering with to promote whereas retail merchants accumulate Bitcoin beneath US$70K (AU$100K), a sample the agency says usually precedes additional corrections.

CryptoQuant has additionally indicated the market nonetheless displays bear-cycle situations regardless of the latest rebound. It needs to be famous the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has returned to “excessive concern,” which clearly suggests market confidence stays weak.

Analyst Benjamin Cowen, independently, characterised 2026 as “a bear market 12 months” for Bitcoin, stating new all-time highs are unlikely earlier than situations enhance considerably.  

Bitcoin was buying and selling at US$67K (AU$95K) on the time of publication, up 3.74% over the previous 30 days however nonetheless sitting 46.82% beneath its all-time excessive. The asset touched latest lows close to US$59K (AU$89K) in February earlier than recovering.

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