• October proved disappointing for Bitcoin merchants because the cryptocurrency fell 12% from its early-month all-time excessive marking solely the third time Bitcoin closed October within the crimson.
  • Analysts attribute Bitcoin’s weak spot to short-term resistance clusters and subdued institutional shopping for, with potential additional drops.
  • There may be disagreement amongst analysts about Bitcoin’s future trajectory, with some predicting additional declines of 65–70% because of traders misunderstanding the asset’s utility.
  • In the meantime, A profitable dealer often known as the ‘Hyperunit whale’ has deployed US$55 million in lengthy positions throughout Bitcoin and Ethereum, betting on a market restoration.

Uptober hasn’t been the success many merchants have been hoping for. Sure, Bitcoin hit a brand new all-time excessive on 7 October at US$126,198 (AU$193,264), but it surely’s been on a downtrend since.
On the time of writing, the biggest crypto is buying and selling at US$104,318 (AU$160,136) — down 12% on the month-to-month chart and roughly 17% from the excessive.

It was additionally solely the third time that Bitcoin closed October within the crimson, as information from Coinglass exhibits. On common, the month has seen a achieve of 19.92%, whereas 2025 recorded a lack of 3.69%.

Bitcoin month-to-month returns, supply: Coinglass

Bitfinex analysts said that Bitcoin “stays weighed down by a short-term resistance cluster”, as long-term holders promote and institutional shopping for stays subdued.

With this as a backdrop, the analysts imagine {that a} “sustained break” beneath the US$106k–107k (AU$162.2k-163.8k) vary may ship BTC again beneath US$100k (AU$153.1k), however a “decisive reclaim above US$116k” may “mark the primary signal of structural restoration heading into November,” the analysts wrote.

And whereas some analysts imagine the traditional Bitcoin four-year cycle is over, others disagree — saying BTC may fall one other 65% and even 70%. Vineet Budki, CEO of enterprise agency Sigma Capital, told Cointelegraph that this might occur as a result of many traders don’t absolutely perceive the asset they maintain:

Bitcoin is not going to lose its utility if it comes right down to $70,000. The issue is that individuals don’t know its utility, and when individuals purchase belongings that they don’t know and perceive, they promote them first — that’s the place the promoting stress comes from.

Vineet Budki, Sigma Capital

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Whale Bets Massive

However whereas analysts warn of additional draw back, some merchants clearly see alternative the place others see danger — and one among them has been making all the suitable calls recently.

Apparently, in keeping with Arkham, the crypto dealer often known as the ‘Hyperunit whale’ — who earned US$200 million (AU$306 million) by predicting final month’s US–China tariff-driven market crash — is now taking US$55 million (AU$84 million) in lengthy positions on Bitcoin (US$37 million / AU$56.6 million) and Ethereum (US$18 million / AU$27.5 million) through Hyperliquid.

After three consecutive profitable trades, analysts at Arkham are watching intently to see whether or not the whale’s bullish guess marks a fourth profitable transfer.

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