ASX Trader Explains Bitcoin’s Fall Below $100K — and the Hidden Signals Pointing to a 2026 Market Trap

Investing educator David Chook, aka. ASX Dealer, believes Bitcoin’s current highs and its later pullback beneath US$100,000 had been each predictable based mostly on an evaluation of market sentiment, information and market cycles.

Talking on the latest episode of the Tapping Into Crypto podcast, Chook stated Bitcoin hasn’t executed something out of the bizarre.

“So no, the market didn’t do something unexpectedly — it’s undoubtedly displaying some weak point there. That final pump as much as US$125k was decrease quantity with a lot of divergence,” Chook defined.

Chook highlighted Bitcoin’s current divergence from the share worth of Bitcoin treasury agency, MicroStrategy, suggesting it doubtlessly signalled weak point growing within the sentiment round Bitcoin.

Chook additionally identified that Bitcoin’s all-time excessive in October coincided, all the way down to the day, with the date of the anticipated high based mostly on Bitcoin’s halving cycle.

“The precise day of the halving cycle, in the event you comply with that, was October 6-7.  So funnily sufficient, Bitcoin topped on the precise day the halving cycle stated it ought to’ve topped.”

Chook added that he believes Bitcoin is presently in comparatively good condition, regardless of having retraced its current highs.

“For the time being Bitcoin is wholesome, it’s come all the way down to a standard ‘zag’ retracement. So long as it holds above US$90k it’s utterly effective.”

Associated: Bitcoin User Accidentally Pays US$105K Fee to Send Just US$10

Converging Cycles Recommend 2026 Might Be a Dangerous Yr For Markets, Says Chook

Discussing the long term outlook for Bitcoin, crypto and the extra conventional monetary markets, Chook stated there have been alerts that 2026 may very well be a troublesome yr for traders.

“There’s loads of issues pointing to 2026 being a yr to be very cautious,” Chook stated, including “you’ve bought the Benner cycle, actual property cycle…it’s type of a yr it is best to actually begin enjoying defence.”

Chook wasn’t positive how these broader cycles may impression crypto, suggesting crypto may even see a pump earlier than the broader market downturn hits. Or it might have already topped and easily comply with the opposite markets all the way down to new lows earlier than slowly recovering. 

I don’t have the reply. All I do know proper now’s the ‘others’ chart [crypto outside the top 10 by market cap] is bearish, crypto basically is bearish — however that would change subsequent week.

David Chook aka ASX Dealer

Associated: Bitget Exec “Firmly” Believes We Won’t See an Altseason This Bull Run

When it comes to the potential for an alt-season, Chook isn’t positive. The buying and selling educator stated cryptocurrencies exterior the highest 10 by market cap have truly been in a bearish pattern towards gold since 2021, but when there may be to be a turn-around and a brand new alt-season, the chart to look at shall be ‘others dominance’.

“You wish to make sure that ‘others dominance’ goes up — ‘others’ is all of the cash after 10, so 11 onwards [as measured by market cap] — and the ‘dominance’ means it’s outperforming,” Chook defined. 

“So if we’ve got alt-season that signifies that your small caps, or small cash, are going to be outperforming your giant caps. In order that ‘others dominance’ must be going up — that’s your primary chart…‘Others dominance’ is a key, key chart.”

The put up ASX Trader Explains Bitcoin’s Fall Below $100K — and the Hidden Signals Pointing to a 2026 Market Trap appeared first on Crypto News Australia.