- Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan predicts Bitcoin will attain new file highs in 2026 pushed by institutional adoption from main wealth platforms like Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan.
- He argues the standard four-year halving cycle is weakening as a result of provide cuts have gotten much less impactful and macroeconomic circumstances like falling rates of interest have shifted.
- Future worth motion is predicted to point out decrease volatility and a decreased correlation with the inventory market as Bitcoin matures right into a extra unbiased asset class via ETFs.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan mentioned he expects Bitcoin to hit new all-time highs in 2026, whereas turning into much less risky and fewer tied to fairness markets. He shared the themes forward of Bitwise’s upcoming set of 10 predictions for 2026, with out giving a particular peak worth goal.
Bitcoin’s “four-year cycle” is a sample individuals have seen round halving occasions, when the block reward paid to miners is minimize in half. The thought is {that a} predictable drop in new provide strains up with a repeatable boom-and-bust rhythm in worth.
Within the conventional story, a giant sell-off is adopted by a quiet interval the place long-term holders accumulate. Then, as a halving approaches and passes, costs rise as new provide slows and demand picks up. That run-up has typically resulted in a speculative peak, adopted by a pointy drop and an extended, flat restoration part. The cycle resets as the following halving approaches.
However Hougan said the forces behind the previous cycle are weaker.
Immediately, these three forces are both a lot weaker or transferring in reverse instructions from previous cycles. The bitcoin halving is by definition half as vital because it was 4 years in the past; rates of interest are seemingly transferring down in 2026, not up; and crypto didn’t growth in 2025.
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Volatility to Proceed Its Downtrend
Hougan additionally mentioned Bitcoin’s volatility has been trending down and may keep decrease subsequent yr, arguing the investor base has broadened via ETFs and different conventional wrappers.
He additionally expects Bitcoin’s correlation with equities to fall in 2026, with crypto-specific components akin to regulation and institutional flows probably driving returns even when shares face strain from valuations and slower progress.
Lastly, Hougan expects institutional participation to develop in 2026 as giant wealth platforms start allocating, naming Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan.
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